The Tipping Point of Maladaptation: Household Risk Trade-Offs Between Flooding and Extreme Heat in Northern Ghana

Abstract

Cement-based self-built housing in Northern Ghana links flood resistance to severe indoor heat stress. This study identifies the socioeconomic threshold at which flood protection overrides thermal comfort, producing climatic maladaptation in household construction decisions. A cross-sectional survey was conducted across three flood-risk-stratified peri-urban clusters in Tamale, and 384 household heads were selected by multi-stage stratified random sampling. Chi-square tests, logistic regression, cluster analysis, and receiver operating characteristic threshold analysis were employed. While indoor heat was considered the main daily stressor by 51.6% of households, 71.9% of climate expenditures were spent on flood protection (mean GHS 2340 vs GHS 680 for heat mitigation). A monthly income of 1,000 GHS marked a maladaptation tipping point; below that threshold, households had a 92.0% chance of a locked-in vulnerability. Adaptation regret affected 46.4%, while 86.5% lacked remediation capacity. Integrated flood-heat policy, tenure regularisation, and bioclimatic material subsidies targeting households earning below 1000 GHS are imperative for breaking the maladaptive trajectory of construction. This study empirically quantifies the household-level tipping point for maladaptation in West African informal settlements, thereby contributing to the theory of maladaptation through income-threshold analysis.