Licensure Examination for Teachers (LET) Performance of Fellowship Baptist College BEEd First-Time Examinees: Trend Analysis, Forecasting, and Cross-Era Validation (2015–2024)

Abstract

This study analyzed the Licensure Examination for Teachers (LET) performance of Fellowship Baptist College (FBC) Bachelor of Elementary Education (BEEd) first-time examinees across nine administrations from September 2021 to September 2024, benchmarked against national elementary passing rates. Employing a quantitative descriptive-trend research design, the study drew institutional records from official program data cross-referenced against Professional Regulation Commission (PRC) official announcements. The post-pandemic aggregate passing rate was 80.77% across 78 qualifying takers, consistently exceeding the national elementary rate in all six qualifying periods, with a mean advantage of +36.35 percentage points over the national mean of 48.39%. Annual FBC performance advantages over the national rate were positive in every year from 2021 to 2024, ranging from +18.01 percentage points (2023) to +44.04 percentage points (2021). Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (R² = 0.060, n = 6) projected indicative rates from 76.90% to 65.69% for 2025–2027, while AIC-guided Simple Exponential Smoothing projected a flat continuation near 84.74% — both trajectories remaining above the national benchmark of approximately 45–47%. The low OLS explanatory power (R² = 0.060) confirms that these projections are directional estimates only. A historical validation incorporating pre-pandemic FBC records extended the evidentiary base to 13 qualifying periods and N = 243 takers across a full decade. FBC exceeded the national passing rate in 12 of 13 qualifying periods (92.3%), and an overdispersion-adjusted binomial logistic regression confirmed that the cross-era improvement is statistically significant. This study establishes FBC’s first systematic institutional LET baseline, intended to anchor longitudinal monitoring and cross-program benchmarking.