Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Policy Implications of Road Traffic Crashes Involving Bystander Fatalities in Nigeria (2005–2025)

Abstract

Stationary roadside bystander fatalities, involving non-vehicle occupants residing, trading, or present near roadways without walking or crossing at the time of a crash, represent an under-examined aspect of Nigeria’s road safety crisis. This study examined temporal dynamics, spatial hotspots, and crash typologies associated with stationary bystander fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) in Nigeria (2005-2025). A retrospective longitudinal design used systematically coded secondary crash data from eight verified media sources. Stationary bystander fatality was defined as a non-vehicle occupant present within or adjacent to a roadside settlement, market, or residential cluster who was not actively walking or crossing, excluding active pedestrians. Data were analyzed using quasi-Poisson regression, Getis-Ord Gi* spatial hotspot detection, and typological classification of 40 verified incidents. Forty incidents resulted in a midpoint estimate of 1,166.5 fatalities (range: 1,085-1,248). Temporal analysis revealed a significant annual increase of 4.9% (IRR = 1.049, 95% CI: 1.032-1.067, p < 0.001), with post-2019 marking an escalation phase. Year 2024 recorded the highest fatalities (midpoint: 251.5), confirming episodic clustering. Fuel tanker explosions accounted for 73.0% of deaths, followed by truck-into-market crashes (9.1%) and vehicle incursions into residential areas (17.9%). Heavy-duty vehicle crashes contributed 82% of fatalities. Lagos and Anambra were the most frequent incident zones; Jigawa was a statistical hotspot (Gi* z = 2.598, p < 0.05). Stationary bystander fatalities in Nigeria increased significantly over two decades, driven by fuel tanker explosions and heavy-vehicle incursions into roadside settlements. Recommendations include temporal risk forecasting, corridor-based safety zones, a hazardous materials transport code, setback enforcement, market relocation, and anti-fuel-scooping sensitization.