Impact of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) On Child Health and Clean Fuel Adoption in India: A State-Level Difference-In-Differences Analysis

Abstract

This study is situated in Development Economics with strong links to Health Economics, evaluating whether a poverty-targeted public policy in India improved household welfare through cleaner energy adoption and child health outcomes. The research evolved from a broad inquiry into whether the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), India's large-scale LPG subsidy program launched in 2016, reduced child Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) prevalence and increased household clean fuel use, to a more focused examination of whether states with higher implementation intensity experienced greater improvements. Using a state-level panel from NFHS-4 (2015–16) and NFHS-5 (2019–21), the study applies a Difference-in-Differences framework with state fixed effects and time-varying controls. PMUY exposure is measured using binary high-versus-low implementation indicators and continuous intensity variables. Findings suggest higher PMUY intensity is associated with modest additional declines in child ARI prevalence in binary specifications, though this effect is statistically fragile and not robust in continuous models. Clean fuel adoption rose substantially across states, but PMUY intensity variation explains only a limited share of this increase. Results indicate that while PMUY may have contributed to limited health gains, connection provision alone is insufficient without sustained, affordable LPG use.