Impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Manufacturing in Zambia: A Post-2021 Literature Review

Abstract

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), operational since January 2021, represents the most ambitious trade integration initiative in African history, uniting 54 countries into a single continental market for goods and services. For Least Developed Countries (LDCs) such as Zambia, manufacturing development is central to achieving structural transformation, sustainable employment creation, and export diversification beyond primary commodities. This paper presents a systematic review of contemporary literature published since 2021 to critically assess how AfCFTA is expected to influence four key dimensions of manufacturing development: output growth, competitiveness enhancement, firm-level performance, and institutional capacity for implementation. Employing a structured literature review methodology with explicit inclusion criteria and a conceptual framework linking trade integration mechanisms to manufacturing outcomes, the review synthesises evidence from computable general equilibrium models, structural gravity analyses, policy diagnostics, and early trade data assessments. Findings indicate that while AfCFTA presents substantial opportunities for industrial expansion through market access and regional value chain integration, realising these benefits is highly conditional upon domestic productive capacity, effective trade cost reduction, and robust policy implementation. The literature reveals significant heterogeneity in projected outcomes, with manufacturing gains disproportionately favouring countries that already possess diversified industrial bases. Critically, existing studies rely heavily on simulation models and regional diagnostics, with limited country-specific empirical evidence for Zambia. By systematically synthesising recent scholarship, this paper identifies four critical knowledge gaps and establishes a robust conceptual foundation for future empirical research investigating AfCFTA's manufacturing effects within the Zambian context, proposing specific methodological approaches and data sources for such investigation.