Decarbonizing Mobility in Rapidly Motorizing Contexts: Structural Constraints and Incremental Pathways for Low-Carbon Transport in Cameroon

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is entering accelerated motorization, with urban populations projected to double by 2050, making transport a pivotal yet understudied climate mitigation sector. Cameroon exemplifies the challenges: urbanization exceeding 3.5% annually, a fleet of imported second-hand vehicles averaging over 15 years old, and informal paratransit handling 70–80% of urban motorized trips. Despite the 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) emissions reduction pledges, transport implementation lags due to governance silos and political-economic lock-ins. Employing socio-technical transitions theory and qualitative policy analysis, triangulating NDCs, development strategies, urban mobility plans, and international reports, this study identifies three barriers: (i) used vehicle import politics, where duties and broker networks sustain carbon-intensive fleets; (ii) fragmentation between environment and transport/urban ministries, yielding road-biased investments; and (iii) colonial-rooted urban forms favouring vehicle dependence. The NDC overlooks paratransit's regime centrality. Rejecting capital-heavy leapfrogging, the article advances incremental decarbonisation for lowincome contexts: paratransit cooperatives enabling fleet renewal; landuse integration shortening trips; phased import/scrappage reforms; electric two-wheelers for high-use segments. A National Transport Authority and international finance would operationalize this. Cameroon's case illuminates pathways for Global South cities, where aligning climate policy with informal mobility realities is essential.