Assessing The Effect of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies on the Operational Performance of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd)

Abstract

Operational performance is pivotal to the sustainability of oil and gas operations, with metrics like resource utilization, disruption recovery, and delivery accuracy determining efficiency and stakeholder satisfaction. This study examined the effect of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategiesspecifically Risk Identification Strategies, Supplier Risk Assessment, Contract Management Risk, and Risk Mitigation Strategies on Operational Performance (OPP) at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd). Operational performance, in this study, is measured through operational efficiency, supply chain resilience, and customer satisfaction with delivery performance. Operational efficiency assesses resource utilization and process optimization, while resilience evaluates the ability to recover from disruptions. Customer satisfaction gauges delivery accuracy. Using a cross-sectional survey design, data were collected from 258 experienced management and senior officers across five critical departments via structured questionnaires. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to analyze the data, revealing that Risk Mitigation Strategies (β = 0.405, p < 0.001), Risk Identification Strategies (β = 0.222, p = 0.013), and Supplier Risk Assessment (β = 0.210, p = 0.001) all significantly affect operational performance, while Contract Management Risk (β = 0.071, p = 0.334) had no significant effect. Collectively, these strategies explain 66.2% of the variance in operational performance (R² = 0.662). While Contract Management Risk was perceived as relevant, it did not translate into measurable performance gains. This study concluded that proactive, capability-driven risk strategies are vital to ensuring efficiency, resilience, and delivery reliability in volatile environments. Recommendations for NNPC Ltd include prioritizing risk mitigation through diversification and analytics, institutionalizing standardized identification frameworks, enhancing supplier vetting with real-time tools, and digitizing contract oversight to strengthen overall operational resilience