Belt and Road Initiative Participation and Bilateral Trade with China: Evidence from Six Partner Economies, 2010–2023

Abstract

Using panel data for six partner economies participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative from 2010 to 2023, this study examines whether formal participation increases bilateral trade with China. We estimate gravity-style two-way fixed effects models and a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood specification for exports, imports, and net exports. The results show no consistent average trade effect from participation. Instead, gains depend on partner economic size, infrastructure capacity, and broader macroeconomic conditions. These findings caution against assuming automatic trade expansion and highlight the importance of complementary domestic policies to realize meaningful and sustainable benefits.