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International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS)

Belt and Road Initiative Participation and Bilateral Trade with China: Evidence from Six Partner Economies, 2010–2023

byMohamed Ichou; Saad Ichou

Published May 8, 2026  •  Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp. 1138–1156Open Access
DOI: 10.51584/IJRIAS.2026.110400079

Abstract

Using panel data for six partner economies participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative from 2010 to 2023, this study examines whether formal participation increases bilateral trade with China. We estimate gravity-style two-way fixed effects models and a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood specification for exports, imports, and net exports. The results show no consistent average trade effect from participation. Instead, gains depend on partner economic size, infrastructure capacity, and broader macroeconomic conditions. These findings caution against assuming automatic trade expansion and highlight the importance of complementary domestic policies to realize meaningful and sustainable benefits.

Keywords: Africa–China trade; Belt and Road Initiative

JournalInternational Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS)
ISSN2454-6194
Volume / IssueVolume 11, Issue 4
Pages1138–1156
Publication dateMay 8, 2026
DOI10.51584/IJRIAS.2026.110400079
PublisherRSIS International
LicenseOpen Access

How to cite this article

Mohamed Ichou, & Saad Ichou (2026). Belt and Road Initiative Participation and Bilateral Trade with China: Evidence from Six Partner Economies, 2010–2023. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS), 11(4), 1138-1156. https://doi.org/10.51584/IJRIAS.2026.110400079

BibTeX

@article{Mohamed2026,
  title   = {Belt and Road Initiative Participation and Bilateral Trade with China: Evidence from Six Partner Economies, 2010–2023},
  author  = {Mohamed Ichou and Saad Ichou},
  journal = {International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS)},
  volume  = {11},
  number  = {4},
  pages   = {1138--1156},
  year    = {2026},
  doi     = {10.51584/IJRIAS.2026.110400079},
  publisher = {RSIS International}
}