Trade, Turbulence, and Remedies Evaluating Non-Tariff Measures, Policy Uncertainty, and WTO Disputes in India-EU Agriculture

Abstract

This study investigates the intricate effects of non-tariff measures (NTMs), policy uncertainty, and World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute dynamics on India’s agricultural exports to the European Union (EU). Employing a comprehensive dataset spanning from 2003 to 2025, this study analyses agricultural Product lines at HS 4 digit Level. By integrating product-level Ad Valorem Equivalent (AVE) estimates of NTMs sourced from UNCTAD, a news-based policy uncertainty index, and detailed WTO dispute records, the analysis quantifies how these factors collectively influence bilateral trade flows. Results reveal that NTMs impose substantial trade restrictiveness particularly in sectors such as tobacco, sugar, and processed agricultural goods while elevated policy uncertainty significantly exacerbates these barriers, compounding trade costs and heightening dispute susceptibility. The econometric framework further uncovers that the interplay between NTMs and policy uncertainty negatively impacts export performance, underscoring the necessity of addressing both regulatory and macro-political dimensions. Drawing on sector-specific findings and dispute patterns, the study offers actionable policy recommendations, emphasizing bilateral regulatory harmonization, enhanced dispute resolution capacities, and transparent policymaking to foster stable, inclusive, and growth-oriented India-EU agricultural trade relations. This research contributes to trade economics by bridging regulatory heterogeneity, policy risk, and legal-economic conflict, thereby informing nuanced negotiation strategies in a complex global trade environment.