Total Cost of Ownership, Adoption Intention and Barriers to Electric Motorcycle Uptake among Nigerian Commercial Riders After Fuel Subsidy Removal: Evidence from Lagos, Ibadan and Kano

Abstract

Nigeria's abrupt removal of fuel subsidies in May 2023 increased petrol retail prices by over 200%, fundamentally disrupting the economics of commercial motorcycle transport (okada) and creating an unprecedented window for electric motorcycle (e motorcycle) transition. Despite projections that 60% of two wheelers in sub-Saharan Africa could be electric by 2040, no peer reviewed study has captured adoption intent or cost economics using primary data collected after the subsidy removal. This study addresses that gap through a stratified survey of 1,200 commercial riders across Lagos, Ibadan and Kano (400 per city), coupled with a rigorous total cost of ownership (TCO) model and binary logistic regression analysis of adoption intention. TCO modelling reveals that e motorcycles achieve cost parity with petrol equivalents within 14.6 months under current fuel prices after subsidy removal, and deliver lifetime savings of ₦1.08 million (≈USD 720) over a five year ownership horizon. Extending the model with an explicit grid reliability factor, which decomposes charging into grid, solar hub and fossil-fuel generator modalities and prices the downtime that unreliable supply imposes, reveals a true cost per kilometre of ₦17.46 for e motorcycles against ₦26.71 for petrol, with a reliability penalty that widens from a net advantage of ₦0.28/km in Lagos to a net cost of ₦1.96/km in Kano. Reliability-adjusted cost parity ranges from 10.5 months in Lagos to 20.7 months in Kano. Binary logistic regression identifies daily income (OR = 2.14; p < 0.001), awareness of government e mobility initiatives (OR = 1.87; p < 0.001) and charging infrastructure proximity (OR = 1.63; p < 0.01) as the strongest predictors of adoption intention. The principal adoption barriers are high upfront acquisition cost (cited by 78.3% of respondents), range anxiety (61.4%) and lack of accessible financing (54.8%). Adoption intent varies significantly by city: Lagos (48.2%) > Ibadan (38.6%) > Kano (29.1%), reflecting differential income levels, infrastructure endowment and cultural attitudes. To address the dominant financial barrier we specify four costed financing frameworks, an IoT-collateralised rider asset-lease repayable at ₦957/day against a daily operating-cost saving of ₦1,036, a battery-swapping subscription at ₦600/day that cuts the acquisition premium by 69% and transfers grid reliability risk from the rider to the operator, a cooperative solidarity guarantee intermediated through rider associations, and a Shariah-compliant murabaha structure for northern markets, with a public interest buy-down cost of approximately ₦200,000 per rider, less than ten months of the petrol subsidy formerly paid on the same machine. These findings provide the first after the subsidy removal empirical baseline for Nigerian e mobility policy and offer actionable insights for manufacturers, financiers, and policymakers seeking to accelerate the energy transition in low and middle income country urban transport.