Epidemiologic Determinants, Health Equity Impact and Geospatial Distribution of Integrated Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Week (MNCHW)/NTD/HPV Interventions in Kogi State, Nigeria (23rd To 26th June, 2026): A PRISMA-Scr, Bayesian Spatial and Human Medical Ecology Analysis of Round One 2026

Abstract

The Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Week (MNCHW), integrated with Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) and Human Papillomavirus (HPV) interventions, remains one of Nigeria's most important high-impact primary health care delivery platforms for improving equitable access to preventive maternal and child health services. Despite high aggregate coverage reported during campaign implementation, substantial geographical and operational inequities frequently remain hidden within administrative summaries. This study evaluated the epidemiologic determinants, health equity impact and geospatial distribution of Integrated MNCHW/NTD/HPV interventions conducted in Kogi State, Nigeria, from the 23rd–26th of June 2026 using Bayesian spatial epidemiology, causal mediation analysis and a Human Medical Ecology framework.
A mixed-methods cross-sectional implementation epidemiology study was conducted across all 21 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Kogi State using validated Day 1–5 administrative datasets, routine health information, facility readiness assessments, geospatial layers and implementation evidence synthesized through a PRISMA-ScR framework. Coverage estimates were validated through reconciliation of programme reports and denominator sensitivity analyses. A ward-level Health Equity Index (HEI; 0–100) was constructed from four standardized domains (access, quality, vulnerability and utilization). Bayesian hierarchical BYM2 spatial models estimated posterior intervention coverage and spatial heterogeneity, while multilevel Bayesian causal mediation models quantified direct, indirect and total effects of financing, service readiness and operational mediators on intervention uptake using 10,000 Monte Carlo posterior simulations. Results were reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR), posterior probabilities and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CrI).