Health Security Success in Primary Health Care Services Delivery by the Administration of His Excellency Ahmed Usman Ododo, Governor of Kogi State (2022–2025)

Abstract

Strengthening Primary Health Care (PHC) financing, governance, and operational readiness is fundamental to achieving resilient health systems and sustainable health security in low- and middle-income countries. Between 2022 and 2025, the Kogi State Government implemented a package of PHC reforms comprising Decentralized Facility Financing (DFF), the Minimum Service Package (MSP), and Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) interventions to improve service delivery, strengthen facility readiness, stabilize commodity supply systems, and expand equitable access to vulnerable and hard-to-reach populations.
We evaluated the Health Systems for Health Security success coefficients in Kogi State using a facility month DHIS2 panel of n=96 PHCs (January 2019–December 2025) and BHCPF Monthly Report Forms (2024–2025). The quasi experimental mixed methods design combined an augmented two way fixed effects Difference in Differences (DiD) estimator for average treatment effects, Interrupted Time Series (ITS) segmented regression to decompose immediate (level) and sustained (slope) impacts, multilevel mixed effects models for heterogeneity, and bootstrap causal mediation to quantify operational pathways. Models adjusted for seasonality, HRH density, environmental risk, and facility fixed effects; inference used cluster robust standard errors and bootstrap confidence intervals. Primary analysis used R (4.3.2) with lme4, fixest, brms/rstanarm, INLA, MatchIt/WeightIt, CausalImpact, sf, spdep; confirmatory DiD and event study checks used Stata/MP 18.0. All code was versioned in Git and analysis notebooks and key outputs were archived.
DFF with CQI produced statistically and programmatically meaningful gains across core BMPHS indicators: DPT3 +6.2 percentage points (95% CI 3.9–8.5); ANC1 +5.1 pp (95% CI 2.8–7.4); SBA +4.8 pp (95% CI 1.9–7.7); PNC +4.3 pp (95% CI 1.6–7.0). ITS decomposition for DPT3 showed an immediate level increase of +3.7 pp (95% CI 1.9–5.5) and a sustained slope of +0.12 pp/month (95% CI 0.06–0.18). Mediation analysis attributed large shares of the DPT3 gain to facility readiness, functional Ward Development Committees, tracer drug availability, and IPC compliance as the largest contributors.
Predictable facility financing coupled with CQI and targeted investments in readiness, governance, and supply chain resilience yields rapid and sustained improvements in immunization and maternal health coverage. Policy priorities include protecting cold chain and tracer drug lines, institutionalizing WDC governance and IPC audits, and targeting surge HRH and outreach financing to high risk LGAs to close equity gaps.
The findings demonstrate the predictability of decentralized financing combined with CQI, governance strengthening, outreach expansion, and operational readiness investments towards the improvement of PHC utilization, immunization coverage, maternal health services, and health system resilience. The study provided epidemiologic evidence to test integrated PHC financing reforms relevance in the strengthening of Health Systems for Health Security (HSFORSHS) in improving accessibility, equity, preparedness, surveillance functionality, and continuity of essential services in vulnerable populations.