Comprehensive Analysis of Mobile Banking Trends in Bangladesh: Data-Driven Insights on Growth, Seasonal Patterns, and the Impact of COVID-19

Abstract

This study examines mobile banking trends in Bangladesh from January 2016 to April 2024 using statistical and time-series analysis to explore key patterns in the sector’s growth and transformation. The findings reveal steady expansion in the number of mobile banking agents, subscribers, transactions, and transaction values over the study period. Statistical techniques such as time-series decomposition, moving averages, and correlation analysis indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly accelerated the adoption of digital financial services. The results also highlight clear seasonal patterns, with notable spikes in transaction volumes during major cultural and religious events such as Eid, Pahela Boishakh, and Durga Puja. Correlation analysis demonstrates strong positive relationships among mobile banking agents, subscribers, transaction counts, and transaction values, suggesting that these metrics evolve in a closely interconnected manner. A comparative assessment of pre-COVID, COVID-19, and post-COVID periods shows a substantial increase in mobile banking activity during the pandemic, followed by a moderated but sustained growth trajectory in the post-pandemic phase. Moving average analysis further confirms the long-term upward trend in transaction volumes by smoothing short-term fluctuations. Overall, the findings indicate that mobile banking has become an essential component of Bangladesh’s financial ecosystem, with important implications for financial inclusion, digital financial services, and policy development.