Budgetary Provision for Agriculture and Output Performance of Selected Crops in Nigeria (2000-2024)

Abstract

Evaluating and providing evidence for Nigeria’s Agricultural budgetary provision and the performance of crops given the allocated budget is imperative. This study examined the budgetary provision for agriculture and output performance of selected crops in Nigeria (2000-2024). It relied on secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Bulletin and Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical (FAOSTAT) Database. To compute the annual compound growth rates of output of selected crops (Rice, cassava, and Yam) exponential equations in time were fitted to these data. In confirming the acceleration, deceleration and stagnation in growths, quadratic equations in time variables were fitted to the output data. The actual performance of rice, yam, and cassava was evaluated using descriptive statistics by comparing their average outputs to the average budgetary allocation from 2000-2024. To estimate the correlation between budgetary expenditure and the output of the selected crops. Correlation analysis was estimated to quantify the strength and direction of the relationship between budgetary expenditure and the selected crop outputs. The result showed that rice output increased at annual rate of 2.53% but at a decelerating rate. Both yam and cassava experienced negative annual growth rates, with yam at -1.49% and cassava at -2.66%. The study confirmed statistical significant deceleration in rice and cassava output variables and stagnation in the output of yam. There was a positive correlation between budgetary expenditure and rice output, but negative correlations for yam and cassava. The low performance in the crops indicates budgetary allocation does not effectively result in higher crop yield. The result indicated that despite budgetary expenditure, the selected crops reflect inconsistencies in funding or lack of complementary investments. This implies that increases in budgetary allocations were associated with increases in rice output but decreases in yam and cassava outputs. The study recommended that a thorough review of the budget allocation processes should be conducted to identify inefficiencies and ensure equitable distribution of resources among all crops thereby optimizing the allocation which could enhance the performance of crops