Time Series Analysis of Reported Cases of Birth Complications in Benue State (A Case Study of General Hospital, North Bank Makurdi)

Abstract

This study focused on analysing the reported cases of birth complications in Makurdi, Benue State. The data for this study is a secondary data obtained from the Medical Record Book of General Hospital North Bank, Makurdi, Benue State from January, 2020 to December, 2022. The statistical software such as Eviews and Minitab was used for the overall statistical analysis for this research work. From the research findings, the reported cases of birth complication for the period of 36 months (2020 – 2022) was found to be stationary. Also, it was found to have quadratic trend analysis model; hence the general movement can be predicted over time. In the research study ARMA (1, 0, 1) model was found to be the best fit for the time series data on reported cases of birth complications for the period of time covered. Based on the analysis carried out, the Cases of birth complications at time t-1 negatively affects the terms of birth rate at time t, hence a knowledge of the immediate past value of reported cases of birth complication in General Hospital North Bank Makurdi in Benue State can be useful in forecasting the future values. Due to the way the past values of reported cases of birth complications negatively affect the present values, it was recommended that policies should be made to improve the measures that can help in birth complications.