Necessary but not Sufficient: Rural Road Rehabilitation, Agricultural Productivity and Climate Risk in Zambia’s Breadbasket Districts

Abstract

Rural roads are frequently promoted as a tool for increasing smallholder agricultural productivity, yet evidence from real-world, climate-stressed contexts remains mixed. This paper examines how rural road rehabilitation under the Zambia Improved Rural Connectivity Project has affected agricultural productivity and resilience among small-scale farmers in Nyimba and Chibombo districts. Using a concurrent mixed-methods design, the study combines survey data from 372 households, stratified by district and distance from rehabilitated roads, with qualitative interviews, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The analysis focuses on land ownership and activation, cropping patterns and yields for maize, sunflower, soya beans and groundnuts over two recent agricultural seasons, including the climatically adverse 2023/24 season. Results show that land ownership is widespread in both districts and that improved roads have supported land activation and crop diversification, particularly in previously more peripheral parts of Nyimba. Maize cultivation remains entrenched, but participation in commercial oilseed and legume crops has expanded or been sustained along rehabilitated corridors. However, yield outcomes are highly volatile: maize and soya yields contracted sharply in 2023/24 season, particularly in Chibombo, despite improved physical access to depots and markets, and sunflower and groundnut yields are uneven across distance bands and local agro-ecologies. Interpreted through the Spatial Development Theory and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the findings support a “necessary but not sufficient” interpretation: Improved Rural Connectivity Project roads raise the ceiling of feasible productivity and help farmers stay engaged in key value chains, but realised productivity gains depend critically on climate, agronomy, liquidity and local market and service ecosystems. Policy implications emphasise integrating rural road investments with climate-smart agriculture, timely input systems and rural finance.