Glacial Retreat and Water Security: What Are the Long-Term Implications of Glacier Melt in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains for Downstream Water Availability in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Abstract

The Tien Shan and Pamir mountains serve as critical water towers for Central Asia, supplying meltwater to major rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which are vital for downstream countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This review synthesizes recent literature on glacier retreat, revealing substantial mass losses of 14–30% since the mid-20th century, with projections of 45–81% area reduction by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios. Initial melt increases river flows, but long-term declines—potentially 5–31% in annual streamflow by mid-century—threaten irrigation-dependent agriculture, hydropower, and water security in these arid nations. Qualitative impacts include heightened risks of food insecurity, economic losses up to 1.3% of regional GDP annually, and potential geopolitical tensions over transboundary resources. Adaptation strategies, such as improved irrigation efficiency and regional cooperation, are essential but face implementation challenges. This review highlights the urgency for integrated policy responses to mitigate these implications.