Return Migration and Its Economic Impact on Kerala: Trends, Drivers and Post- Covid Policy Implications

Abstract

Migration is a dynamic global phenomenon shaped by economic, social, and political factors, with profound impacts on both origin and destination countries. Kerala, known for its high rate of out-migration, particularly to Gulf countries, has witnessed a notable rise in return migration in recent years, accelerated by the Covid- 19 pandemic and related disruptions. This study aims to examine the trends and patterns of return migration in Kerala and to analyze its impact on the Kerala economy in the post-pandemic context. The research relies exclusively on secondary data sourced from the Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) 2023 and earlier rounds, report from the Department of Non-Resident Keralites Affairs (NORKA), and publications by international organizations such as the ILO, World Bank, and IOM. The findings indicate that the Covid-19 crisis significantly accelerated return migration, with job loss and visa expiry as the primary drivers. Returnees have contributed financial capital, skills, and international exposure to the local economy, offering both opportunities and challenges for reintegration. However, the state faces structural constraints in effectively absorbing these returnees into the workforce. While the study highlights key patterns and economic impacts, it is limited by its reliance on secondary data, which may not fully capture recent developments or the socio-psychological dimensions of return migration. Overall, the analysis underscores the need for targeted policies to harness the developmental potential of return migration in Kerala.