High-Grade Ore in a Decarbonising World: Simandou, Green Steel and the Strategic Repositioning of India’s Iron Ore Sector

Abstract

The global iron ore market stands at a pivotal inflection point. While long-term steel-intensive infrastructure growth in emerging economies sustains underlying demand, near-term oversupply from Tier-1 producers and decelerating Chinese crude-steel output have created a pronounced supply overhang, exerting downward pressure on benchmark prices. India, the world’s fourth-largest producer, finds itself uniquely positioned: domestic steel capacity expansion to 500 Mtpa by 2047 will require an additional ~200 Mtpa of iron ore feedstock by mid-century, yet the sector remains hamstrung by legacy environmental liabilities, sub-optimal logistics and a historically fragmented governance framework. This paper synthesises the latest authoritative forecasts on global demand, production and pricing, with a deepened focus on the Simandou project’s transformative role in high-grade supply dynamics, Brazil’s Carajás mining complex and Australia’s Pilbara operations as benchmarks for integrated sustainability, before undertaking a critical examination of sustainability paradigms in Indian iron ore mining, with emphasis on future directional imperatives, quantifiable ESG metrics and their interplay with global green steel initiatives, including emerging technologies such as hydrogen direct reduced iron (H-DRI) and molten oxide electrolysis (MOE). Projections extend to 2050, revealing a polycentric demand surge offset by decarbonisation imperatives that could cap iron ore consumption at ~1.8 Bt despite steel output exceeding 2.5 Bt. Adopting an interdisciplinary lens that integrates resource economics, environmental management and strategic corporate governance, the analysis underscores the non-negotiable imperative of embedding ESG imperatives into core operational DNA if Indian producers are to retain competitive parity in an increasingly decarbonised global steel value chain.