Geospatial Analysis of Crime Hotspots and Optimal Security Agency Allocation in Bauchi Metropolis, Nigeria

Abstract

This study analyzes the spatial patterns of crime hubs by identifying and mapping crime locations and police stations within Bauchi Metropolis to determine their spatial distribution and relationships, and further provided recommendations for new police station locations. Geospatial techniques, including Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis, were used for kernel density estimation, crime hub analysis, proximity analysis, and location allocation of police station. The findings revealed that 34.17% of Bauchi Metropolis was overserved by police station, 38.04% adequately served, and 27.79% underserved. Within a 3 km buffer, 75.02% was overserved by security agencies, 14.87% underserved, and 10.11% adequately served. Miri (30.12%) and Birshi (19.95%) accounted for 50.7% of reported crimes, underscoring the need for targeted interventions. Although 89.02% of the area fell into the "Least Crime Hub" category, zones like Birshi, Dan Iya, and Miri were categorized as "Less" and "Moderate Crime Hubs," requiring proactive measures to prevent escalation. Proximity analysis revealed that police stations like "E' Division" were overburdened due to proximity to multiple crime hubs, highlighting the need for resource reallocation. To reduce crime, law enforcement efforts should focus on increasing police presence, community engagement, and strategic resource distribution, including the placement of permanent stations and targeted crime prevention programs in vulnerable areas.