Urban Public Spaces and Pandemic Resilience: A Simulative Infection Assessment to Aid Crowd Management

Abstract

The management of public spaces has become increasingly important as infectious diseases such as COVID-19 continue to shape urban life. Extended lockdowns have underscored the crucial role of accessible outdoor recreational areas, underscoring the importance of maintaining these spaces while minimizing infection risks and enhancing pandemic resilience. This study examines the potential for disease transmission in an urban park by simulating multiple activity-based scenarios using an integrated modelling approach that couples agent-based modelling with system dynamics. The agent-based model captures proximity-based interactions among park users, which in turn feed into the system dynamics model to track changes in infection rates over time. Two primary sets of scenarios were evaluated: those reflecting current park conditions and those incorporating social distancing interventions. The results show that a combination of staggered visitation time slots and at least 75% compliance with safety measures produces the most favourable outcomes, significantly reducing transmission risk while maintaining park usability. These findings demonstrate that strategic, scenario-based interventions can help avoid the need for complete closures of public spaces during health crises. Overall, the study provides evidence that integrated simulation models can support data-driven, transparent, and adaptable public space management strategies. By helping authorities anticipate how behavioural patterns and policy measures influence disease spread, such models can guide decisions that preserve public access to essential urban spaces while safeguarding public health. This approach can be replicated in other urban contexts to enhance preparedness and minimize disruptions during future pandemics.